@extends('layouts.app') @section('title', 'Monte Carlo Simulation - Blackberry Farm Analytics') @section('content')
โ† Analytics Dashboard ๐ŸŽฏ Scenario Comparison โš–๏ธ Break-Even Analysis ๐Ÿ“Š Sensitivity Analysis

โš™๏ธ Simulation Parameters

{{ number_format($simulationData['iterations']) }}
Scenarios Tested
Monte Carlo runs
{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['mean_roi'], 1) }}%
Average ROI
Expected outcome
{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['median_roi'], 1) }}%
Median ROI
50th percentile
{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'], 1) }}%
Success Probability
Positive ROI chance

๐Ÿ“Š Risk Assessment Summary

๐ŸŽฏ Best Case (95th Percentile)

ROI: {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['percentile_95'], 1) }}%
Probability: 5% chance of exceeding
Scenario: Optimal conditions with high yields, premium pricing, and low costs

๐Ÿ“ˆ Expected Case (Average)

ROI: {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['mean_roi'], 1) }}%
Std Deviation: ยฑ{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['std_dev'], 1) }}%
Scenario: Most likely outcome based on current assumptions and typical variations

โš ๏ธ Worst Case (5th Percentile)

ROI: {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['percentile_5'], 1) }}%
Probability: 5% chance of falling below
Scenario: Adverse conditions with low yields, poor pricing, and high costs

๐Ÿ“Š ROI Distribution Analysis

{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['max_roi'], 1) }}%
Maximum ROI
{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['median_roi'], 1) }}%
Median ROI
{{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['min_roi'], 1) }}%
Minimum ROI

๐ŸŽฏ Probability Analysis

@php $results = collect($simulationData['results']); $profitable = $results->where('roi', '>', 0)->count(); $highReturn = $results->where('roi', '>', 15)->count(); $veryHighReturn = $results->where('roi', '>', 25)->count(); $losses = $results->where('roi', '<', 0)->count(); $total = $results->count(); @endphp

๐Ÿ’š Profitable Scenarios

{{ number_format(($profitable / $total) * 100, 1) }}%
{{ number_format($profitable) }} out of {{ number_format($total) }} scenarios
ROI > 0%

๐Ÿ’œ High Return Scenarios

{{ number_format(($highReturn / $total) * 100, 1) }}%
{{ number_format($highReturn) }} out of {{ number_format($total) }} scenarios
ROI > 15%

๐Ÿงก Exceptional Returns

{{ number_format(($veryHighReturn / $total) * 100, 1) }}%
{{ number_format($veryHighReturn) }} out of {{ number_format($total) }} scenarios
ROI > 25%

โค๏ธ Loss Scenarios

{{ number_format(($losses / $total) * 100, 1) }}%
{{ number_format($losses) }} out of {{ number_format($total) }} scenarios
ROI < 0%

{{ $simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'] >= 80 ? 'โœ…' : ($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'] >= 60 ? 'โš ๏ธ' : 'โŒ') }} Investment Recommendation

@if($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'] >= 80)

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT

This scenario shows strong probability of success with {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'], 1) }}% chance of positive returns. The expected ROI of {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['mean_roi'], 1) }}% indicates a solid investment opportunity.

@elseif($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'] >= 60)

MODERATE RISK INVESTMENT

This scenario shows moderate risk with {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'], 1) }}% chance of positive returns. Consider risk mitigation strategies and ensure you're comfortable with the {{ number_format(100 - $simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'], 1) }}% chance of losses.

@else

HIGH RISK INVESTMENT

This scenario shows high risk with only {{ number_format($simulationData['statistics']['probability_positive'], 1) }}% chance of positive returns. Consider reducing plant count, improving efficiency, or reconsidering the investment timing.

@endif
Key Risk Factors:
  • Yield variation: ยฑ15% (weather, pests, management)
  • Price variation: ยฑ20% (market conditions, competition)
  • Cost variation: ยฑ10% (input prices, labor costs)

โš™๏ธ Simulation Assumptions

๐Ÿ”ง Modify Parameters
Base Parameters:
  • {{ number_format($plantCount) }} plants analyzed
  • {{ $years }} year projection
  • {{ number_format($iterations) }} Monte Carlo iterations
Variation Assumptions:
  • Yield: ยฑ15% normal distribution
  • Price: ยฑ20% normal distribution
  • Costs: ยฑ10% normal distribution
@endsection @push('scripts') @endpush